klynn55
747 posts
msg #115859
- Ignore klynn55 |
10/13/2013 4:20:01 PM
kevin thanks for being so thoughfull
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mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #115864
- Ignore mahkoh |
10/13/2013 6:32:38 PM
I would suggest to always check non adjusted historical data on candidates from a source like Yahoo Finance.
As an example USU (which is not on the list) looks to have traded between $7 and $16 in SF data. But prior to the 1 for 25 split in July 2013 it actually traded below $ 0.70.
And with a few formulas in excel you can check whether your GTC order would have been filled within 3 weeks if it failed to do so during the week. The stats for the top 10:
GMCR: 5 failures, closed out 3 times profitable within 3 weeks ( failure from week ending 9/27 has a chance to close this week)
SRPT : 7 failures, 3 closed out profitable
TSLA : 6 failures, all closed out profitable
BBRY : 8 failures, 6 closed out profitable
YOKU : 8 failures, 3 closed out profitable
P : 8 failures, 7 closed out. This weeks failure still has 3 weeks to try and close with a profit.
UVXY : 8 failures, 2 closed out profitable
DUST : 4 failures( out of 46 entries), 3 closed out profitable
NPSP : 9 failures, 2 closed out profitable
QCOR : 9 failures, 5 closed out profitable
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #115865
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/13/2013 9:52:42 PM
Mahkoh - good point, especially for low cost stocks that do a reverse split. The normal stock split should not be that much of an issue, but is also worth checking.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #115866
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/13/2013 9:58:24 PM
I'll be tracking the 13 week top performers as we go along here. Based on performance over the past 13 weeks, trades to be entered at the open on Monday October 14th are
SFUN - 100 shares
DUST - 115 shares
CSIQ - 250 shares
YOKU - 170 shares
WLT -340 shares
All have gone 13 for the last 13. Not sure what the open price will be, but these share amounts would put roughly $5000 into each trade.
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olathegolf
119 posts
msg #115868
- Ignore olathegolf |
10/14/2013 2:05:54 AM
Thanks, Kevin for the v2.0. Always good work.
As TRO always said, it's not what you trade but how you trade it.
Undoubtedly, the win percentages are high. I am most interested in the occasion when the 2% is not triggered. In the old TRO post, Frank (Oldsmar52) suggested that he just waits it out - I guess implying that he always wins. My simple backtesting shows otherwise.
So, the big question is exit strategy. Kevin spoke about this in some detail at the end of the old TRO post.
It might also be interesting to see the win% if you (decide to) hold for 2, 3, or 4 weeks.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #115869
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/14/2013 7:23:37 AM
I might argue that with win rates like these the better strategy is to enter more trades, spreading your risk and putting less into each trade. Then the occasional 10-15% whallop is absorbed by the larger number of 2% wins.
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jimmyjazz
102 posts
msg #115879
- Ignore jimmyjazz
modified |
10/14/2013 10:10:53 AM
In the "let it ride" vein, I would argue that it might make sense to let all trades ride to Friday close if they don't hit the exit limit price earlier in the week. Take whatever exit price you get. Many, many times on the Supercharged Crockpot a -10% stop wasn't triggered and exit near Friday close trades roughly balanced out (some up, some down, most near flat).
Last week was the first time I took a beating using Supercharged Crockpot.
FYI, I am in WLT as of near-open this morning, using a long call, and it has gained enough for me to convert to a trailing stop that will ensure I won't lose money (assuming it triggers and executes at that price). No exit criteria to the upside. I'll just let it ride.
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oldsmar52
104 posts
msg #115883
- Ignore oldsmar52 |
10/14/2013 11:25:00 AM
In the other TRO thread I mentioned an option if you didn't like the "buy at open" on Monday method. Today was a rather big down opening & I'd said you might want to wait & when the stock went below its Monday open you could put in a buy stop to get in at its original open price. That's what I did today & got in and out of CSIQ, DUST, HSOL, CPRX & STP with 2% on each. That was on Avery's original filter, not the one in this thread. Anyone pay attention to that option? Frank
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #115885
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
10/14/2013 11:30:32 AM
Just a quick note to say that CSIQ, DUST, and WLT have all hit their 2% profit targets. Right now SFUN and YOKU are both profitable ... but the day is young. Could go either way.
UPDATE at 12:39 PM: YOKU also has now hit the 2% target, and SFUN (the only remaining open trade) is up slightly over 1%.
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jimmyjazz
102 posts
msg #115886
- Ignore jimmyjazz |
10/14/2013 11:48:42 AM
Kevin, what are your thoughts on this modified version of Crock Pot versus your earlier "supercharged" Crock Pot?
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