| StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · bollinger bands | << 1 2 3 4 5 ... 23 >>Post Follow-up |
| janeiro 25 posts msg #26274 - Ignore janeiro |
4/19/2003 1:49:47 PM Wallman, I 100% agree with you about what u say in the msg above...but as I studied during these last week the charts found with your filter in order to find some common pattern...I have to say that big gainers...are not only the ones that have a candlestick with long bottom shadow... Ciao D. |
| wallman 299 posts msg #26276 - Ignore wallman |
4/19/2003 4:37:26 PM DAVID,you are absolutly correct about the big gainers not just coming from long shadows these past weeks,turns out that the method is so hot right now big gains are coming from any candle formation,iv'e seen it have periods like this about 4 times in last 18 months that last about 4-6 weeks,but in NORMAL times i'd say about 2/3rds of the nice gains come from a longer bottom shadow than a top one and as i've said before a pickup in volume in last day or two seems to go hand in hand with it,like i said if a stock matches but doesn't have that bottom tail and you like it AND you can make a good entry,go for it during this hot period just keep tracking the filter to see when(if)it cools off somewhat then go back to bottom shadow plays,whatever works for you.---- p.s i tried your email from message on 4/17 but keeps getting returned with bad address(?) |
| sbeckers 23 posts msg #26279 - Ignore sbeckers |
4/19/2003 11:42:11 PM Wallman, If you have been trading this method for 18 months, then you are the one to learn from on this trade, congratulations on your diligence. I wrote earlier about range (high-low) referring to the tendencies of stocks to follow through for 2-3 days after breakout from a narrow range day. If your trade is in the direction of the trend it has an even higher probability. Could it be that what happens in your pattern is that weaker hands get washed out outside of the bollinger band, so you are actually looking for a WIDER range day, possibly with a smaller candle body? In your experience I wonder if you have taken notice as to whether range is expanding or contracting into your buy point on the most successful trades? When you talk about long tails can you relate the signal day's range to the range of previous days? Also, on your most successful trades, what has the opening reaction been? Are you looking for a powerful gap in the direction of the trade? thanks, sam |
| wallman 299 posts msg #26283 - Ignore wallman |
4/20/2003 11:21:10 PM HI SAM,thx for the compliment,in that 18 months i tried a lot of tweaking but highest win% to profit% ratio always came down to the simple,basic one that i've shared with you,during the first 4 months of that 18 i just papertraded and looked back on the charts to try to identify common traits of the winners and of the losers,then i worked on my entry pionts,i believe you are right about the weaker holders getting out at bottom bb,that is why i like to see the volume increase,i want them out as soon as possible,not little by little, day after day, which i found out happens on smaller volume days,to try to answer your ?'s: i would definitly say that the bigger gainers show a range expansion prior to the breakout,the length of the candle body plus shadows is much larger(sometimes 2 or 3 days in a row) than the way the stock has been trading in the past few weeks,some exs. to look at are TIVO 4-11,MUSE 3-11 4-11,BPUR 1-28 3-25,ADIC 4-8,AV 3-31, AAII 3-20 AWA 3-19,as for longer tails they will relate to an expanding range if added to the body length the candle plus shadows is longer the the previus 2 or 3 days and the opening reaction on most good gainers is maybe only a few cents at the open and a gradual buildup after about 10:15 that's why i like to buy around 9:50 or so,as for gaps up at the open of say 4% or more i just let em go,i won't chase em,there's too many better entrys tomorrow or the next,just gotta try to have some patience |
| janeiro 25 posts msg #26284 - Ignore janeiro |
4/21/2003 7:25:29 AM Hi WALLMAN... >>p.s i tried your email from message on 4/17 but keeps getting returned with bad address(?)<< first read my email address (the capital letters...) than do exactly what it say...(to218775@REMOVEMEhotmail.com)...it's a very well know trick...if you can try to get in touch with me before the market open...maybe I have something to share with u. ciao David |
| janeiro 25 posts msg #26285 - Ignore janeiro |
4/21/2003 9:59:09 AM Hi WALLMAN... >>p.s i tried your email from message on 4/17 but keeps getting returned with bad address(?)<< first read my email address (the capital letters...) than do exactly what it say...(to218775@REMOVEMEhotmail.com)...it's a very well know trick...if you can try to get in touch with me before the market open...maybe I have something to share with u. ciao David |
| wallman 299 posts msg #26286 - Ignore wallman |
4/21/2003 11:13:35 AM DAVID, i tried everything,couldn't get through,try me.....muddtruckf250@aol.com |
| janeiro 25 posts msg #26291 - Ignore janeiro |
4/22/2003 5:26:18 AM Wallman, I sent a couple of emails yesterday but they did not even bounce back...did u get them? ciao D |
| wallman 299 posts msg #26292 - Ignore wallman |
4/22/2003 10:09:57 AM one thing i wanted to mention when using this method which is often overlooked is the risk/reward factor,in this case when chosing between 2 stocks that fit the criteria consider the width of bottom bb from top bb,say both are $5 but top band on one is $6 and the other is $7,if first one goes halfway to top bb that's a 10% gain,if other one does that's a 20% gain,of course bb's will expand/contract after you enter but you have no way of knowing how much until after the fact so it's a good starting point,it's been my experiance that both 5-6 and 5-7 have about an equal chance to get halfway so 5-7 gives you 10% more reward for the same amount of risk!,this really adds up over a period of a couple months as you can see,those new to bb's,a great place to check em out is BOLLINGERONBOLLINGERBANDS.com, as always good luck and have fun,MUDDY |
| gruender 101 posts msg #26293 - Ignore gruender |
4/22/2003 1:00:42 PM Muddy, you make a good point; that is why I either use "add column atr(10)" or "add column atr(30)" to my filters so that I can see what is the "volatility" of the price before I select the stock that I am going to buy. However, we must remember, the greater the volatility, the greater the risk. Therefore we need to keep a close eye on the more volatile stocks. Good Luck, Joe |
| StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · bollinger bands | << 1 2 3 4 5 ... 23 >>Post Follow-up |
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