EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30628
- Ignore EWZuber |
1/14/2004 1:53:53 AM
Thanks everyone for the replys.
Well, I think that the possibility exists that precious metal stocks will move up before long. Based solely on technical observation.
Looking at a 1 YR. Weekly chart of HUI, a PM stocks index, I see that stochastics have already crossed over into an accumulation phase.
Daily chart stochastics are oversold and today bounced up off of the 25 DMA.
I would not be surprised to see it test the 50 DMA at 235 or the 15 Week MA @ about 230 ( & rising ).
HUI has been getting oversold to the extreme lately before bouncing so I'll just have to see how it acts when it comes up against the next indicator.
On the hourly chart the HUI has been forming a Bullish Descending Wedge pattern.( Bullish only because it is at the top of a bullish move. )
This morning the pattern was broken to the downside and became very oversold. I have been seeing this pattern repeated over and over where these consolidating patterns break support and become oversold before moving higher. It's like the action of a handle in a Cup With Handle pattern.
At the least I am looking for an oversold bounce. I charted the most aggressive of the PM stocks that I have on a watch list and chose two that had the convergence of events I look for. PMU appears to be poised a bit better.
PMU looks very good by itself without help from the index. Major TL Resistance was broken on 12/26 and confirmed at the same time by a stochastic Fast line cross above the Slow line. Today it bounced up off the 50 DMA @ $1.17. Weekly chart stochastics Fast line has completely converged with the Slow line indicating a relatively long term uptrend ( accumulation phase ) is likely beginning.
Daily chart stochastics are rising ( accumulation phase ).
Hourly chart was very oversold and PMU broke Short Term TL Resistance at about $1.19 ( hourly chart ) and was confirmed by a fast line cross above the slow line at the same time ( accumulation phase ). Picked it up at $1.21.
It closed the sesion in the money just a tad.
AGT bounced up off the 15 DMA today. Weekly chart has been into an accumulation phase for a couple weeks.
Daily chart is oversold and selling volume has been declining for several days.
This one is right on the edge of my volume minimum.
( After playing EXEG it was like watching paint dry. No volume. Finally got out this morning at $0.94 at the open. Decided no more low volume stocks. )
Hourly chart for AGT is oversold. AGT broke the Short Term TL Resistance ( hourly chart ) at about $2.28 and thats where i picked it up. It hasn't broken substantially above the horizontal line drawn at $2.28 ( where the TL was broken ) yet though. The stock hasn't moved substantially above this line so watching closely with a tight mental stop.
JMHO
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txtrapper
548 posts
msg #30632
- Ignore txtrapper |
1/14/2004 8:54:57 AM
Zuber
Take a look at this......
http://quotes.nasdaq.com/quote.dll?page=afterhours&mode=frameset&symbol=AAPL
Tx
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jthehut
124 posts
msg #30633
- Ignore jthehut |
1/14/2004 9:41:18 AM
gold down 4.50 so far...(9:40 EST AM)
most gold/mining shares down significantly...
~the hut
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jthehut
124 posts
msg #30634
- Ignore jthehut |
1/14/2004 10:13:11 AM
gold down $6 at 10:14AM EST
gold shares still tanking...
~the hut~
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jthehut
124 posts
msg #30635
- Ignore jthehut |
1/14/2004 10:15:15 AM
Interesting to note that Euro is sig down (as of 10:15 AM EST)
ESPECIALLY after yesterday's speech by Greenspan in Germany...
gold down $6.20 now...
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30641
- Ignore EWZuber |
1/14/2004 1:35:59 PM
HUI has been holding at trendline support @ 230.
So far my position in PMU is just about even. AGT is dwn ( -2.6% ).
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jthehut
124 posts
msg #30642
- Ignore jthehut |
1/14/2004 3:39:06 PM
Zuber,
AGT broke ema(13) which is a bad sign (for me) to trade this day.
Also, full stoch (which I incorporate heavily into my trading decisions thanks to you and Todd Dunning) DID NOT cross today.
BUT
I think AGT should be ripe as soon as the full stoch (5,3,3) crosses...
that also depends on the direction of gold IMO.
~the hut~
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jthehut
124 posts
msg #30646
- Ignore jthehut |
1/14/2004 5:14:26 PM
Zuber,
are precious metals "due" tomorrow?
~the hut~
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #30649
- Ignore EWZuber |
1/14/2004 5:39:44 PM
jthehut
I got rid of AGT. It formed a short term supporting trendline and broke it at $2.23.
I probably should have closed PMU as well at $1.19 but it is heavily oversold on the hourly chart and todays volume was average so I decided to see what tomorrow morning brings. If it moves a bit higher could get a Morning star out of it. It closed dead on the 50 DMA.
What I don't like about it is that it closed below a 3 week Supporting TL.
It was a tad nippy this morning at -25 F. But it's warmed up now to -15F.
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jthehut
124 posts
msg #30660
- Ignore jthehut |
1/15/2004 8:26:13 AM
Gold down another $4...are we nearing a bottom yet?
As well, the US dollar is finally gaining steam, and it seems that it and gold are intimitely related...are we going to see gold <400 soon?!?
I expect gold shares to go down today IMO, but all my money is tied up in some good prospects today anyways...
~the hut~
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