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| wallman 299 posts msg #30896 - Ignore wallman |
1/29/2004 8:01:13 PM hi ZUB, you say you don't want to follow but the clue is right there in front of you,the volume build-up,why would you want to guess when it's going to come when you can see it has and take the profits very many of these give quickly.if you go to my last post on this thread 1 - 22,you'll see i mentioned DLGI looked like it still had a ways to go,you'll see it went another 46% after that,AEGN another 38% after that post,if you happened to stumble onto my site you'll see i posted DRF and ECGI the day before they gained 38% and 55%,of course most don't gain like that but you have a decent shot at them,the kind that can pay the bills for a month in a day or 2,look at NT,a favorite trader of mine,how it took off on 1 - 7 with monster volume,did the same on 9 - 3,the volume is still there,it has tested the EMA13 the last 6 days and i know i have a 80% chance of a nice gain from it once it holds green after that lenght of time of 5 or 6 days ,to me it's all about the odds and what i can take quickly,as always,respectfully,MUDDY |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #30897 - Ignore EWZuber |
1/29/2004 8:54:24 PM txtrapper I think maybe you misunderstood what i was trying to say. I have a working understanding of volume and I use it in my TA, however I do not typically look for an increase in volume to find my positions because by the time volume shows up the position that I am looking for has already passed me by. I like getting in within 1 ~ 2% of primary support or right at the break of trendline resistance when confirmed by a stochastic crossover. These are my ideal entries. The volume usually comes in right at or just after the Res. TL break. If I wait to find it on a screen or whatever it is too late for me. I don't like having support more than 1 ~ 2% below my entry. I like to see the volume after I get in as another confirmation the position is viable. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #30898 - Ignore EWZuber |
1/29/2004 9:49:39 PM wallman Why do you think I am guessing? My system is simply different than yours. DLGI is an OTCBB I can not trade those at IB. AEGN offered several entries. The one I like the most was on 1/13 as TL. Res. was broken on the hourly chart and Stochastics +xover on Weekly, Daily & Hourly chart. Putting all 3 time frames in phase in accumulation. Notice there is no volume yet and the entry is at about $2.26. Waiting for volume would seem to get me in at about $2.69 on 1/20 if I have interperated you correctly. ECGI was one of my picks also. I first mantioned it on TxTrappers 'Hot Stocks' on 1/2. On that thread on 1/5 I said I was looking for a bounce up off the 200 DMA which it did while also giving me a Res. TL break and a stochastic +xover on Weekly, Daily, and Hourly charts putting all 3 time frames in accumulation phase. Entry point at about $0.62. Thats a 125% gain as of todays close. I don't know where your entry was exactly. I couldn't get in though because my small amount of capitol was already tied up. You and I are on two different paths. I have many many obsticles in my way to success. If my money is sittting in 2 stocks I am out of opportunity. All I can do is watch the other entries pass me by. If I close a position, I am done for the day because the trade has to settle before I can trade again. I am working on a shoestring and do not have the resources to take a position here and there like most of you do. Until you have to try and make something like this work I don't think you can imagine it. Best of fortune |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #30903 - Ignore EWZuber |
1/30/2004 3:19:44 AM jthehut I don't think so. I suspect we started a short term ( based on hourly chart stochastics ) oversold bounce today. I'm watching to see if it rises to test the 15 HR. MA ( @ 2085 & falling ) or 25 HR. MA.( @ 2105 & falling ) as resistance. Since hourly chart stochastics are at 60 already it seems reasonable that the cycle will be getting toppy as the 15 HR is aproached. Then I suspect it will probably run into trouble and head back down to test the 15 Week MA as support @ about 2000 & rising. Looks like this could be a deep distribution phase. But thats JMHO |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #30904 - Ignore EWZuber |
1/30/2004 3:24:09 AM Another thing worth watching is the bottom of the double top pattern at 2108 ( hourly chart ). NASDAQ may try to test that as resistance at some point. |
| jthehut 124 posts msg #30909 - Ignore jthehut |
1/30/2004 11:03:45 AM I see the resistance at about the 2100 point for the NAS...what would you consider "passing resistance" to be comfortable saying that the NAS is headed back to about the 3000 mark? thanks, ~the hut~ |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #30913 - Ignore EWZuber |
1/30/2004 4:22:59 PM NASDAQ is forming a base now looks like maybe a wedge pattern is forming on intraday charts. Its managed to break the 15 HR.MA this last hour. Trendline resistance is at 2074 & falling. This is the one that is most important to me, short term. Semis (SOX ) and Gold Stocks ( XAU & HUI ) pulled the index up today. Gold stocks are very oversold on Weekly chart so this was expected soon. Semis though are still overbought on weekly chart but are trying to hold support at the 15 WK. MA @ 512. This is usually very bearish for an index to be testing support while just starting a distribution phase. Defence stocks ( DFI) are in accumulation on Weekly chart but is in distribution on Daily chart. When this daily chart cycle has bottomed I would be looking for some gains in that sector ( within a few days ). Most of the indexes are overbought on Weekly charts and have just started distribution. A flurry of excellent earnings could mitigate the distribution phase. Other than that it looks like they are headed lower over the next several weeks. So far I've charted GIN, GSO, IXCO, IXF, RLX, SOX, TRAN, XAL all -xover on Weekly. What we need to see, IMO, before the NASDAQ is ready to take on 3000, is the weekly chart stochastics to be oversold and +xover while testing support on most all the indexes at ( at least ) their 15 Week MAs. If you look back at historical charts you will see that this is the scenario that existed before each of the big moves we have seen since Oct. 2002. If you look at the bull market of the 1990s you'll see that before each big move higher the Weekly chart stochastics became oversold while NASDAQ dropped to test the 50 Week MA. Smaller moves higher it tested the 25 Week MA. as support first. It appears there is a correlation there. I suspect that the weak hands will need to be purged before a major move can occur. I suspect we will see a bounce soon but it will not be the next move higher. It will be more of a move to test and confirm resistance. JMHO |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #30926 - Ignore EWZuber |
2/1/2004 10:39:25 PM NAVR looking very good, IMO. Testing TL Support while oversold on Daily chart. It has formed a wedge pattern on the 30 min. chart with TL Resistance at $6.19 & falling. EMA is shaping up but I suspect not quite ready. Maybe with a few more hours on the 30 min. chart. JMHO |
| wallman 299 posts msg #30928 - Ignore wallman |
2/1/2004 11:29:22 PM ZUB,any thoughts on IECE ? looks ready to pop imo |
| jthehut 124 posts msg #30929 - Ignore jthehut |
2/2/2004 12:22:57 AM not very liquid? |
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