| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Just a Heads Up | << 1 ... 29 30 31 32 33 ... 50 >>Post Follow-up |
| travlr 80 posts msg #31117 - Ignore travlr |
2/17/2004 6:23:48 PM Hi EW, STEC is nicely oversold, but I see that a break of the 100 WMA would be the down slope of of 1 year head & shoulders pattern, Very similiar to the two in prior years. The more recent had a weekly stoch cycle, at the same location that only proved to trade sideways (weekly). I also notice that, at this location on the prior patterns that this market gapped hard and tanked on a follow-up through the 200 WMA. Pretty strong patterns. Also, the fundamentals, to me, appear pretty weak. Please realize that I am a total student of the markets still. So, I hope you will comment on my observations. BTW... I wonder, Have you read the "book" by the "Phantom Of The Pits". If so, I hope you might also comment on his methodology. Thanks travlr |
| travlr 80 posts msg #31118 - Ignore travlr |
2/17/2004 6:37:47 PM Ahhh... That's a break of the 50 WMA, not 100. travlr |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #31133 - Ignore EWZuber |
2/18/2004 6:05:07 PM travlr I don't use Weighted Moving Averages. I only use Simple Moving Averages so that is the only way I can relate MAs to the STEC chart. I'm sorry I don't know which patterns you are refering to or what gap. I usually reference dates and prices when discribing trendlines or patterns. For instance, 'the trendline that starts from the intraday low of 9/23/01 @ $1.03 to the intraday low of 10/6/02 @ $1.80 to the intraday low of 4/13/03 @ $2.20 is a long term Supporting Trendline.' If you can please reference your comments I would like to see what you are looking at. What I am looking at is the 50 WK.MA as support for now @ ~ $5.10. STEC bounced up off this yesterday. As long as the Supporting Trendline is not seriously violated on the Hourly chart I will hold. Today STEC dropped a couple pennies below TL Support during the hours ending at 1:30 & 2:30 but the volume was the lowest of the day and dropping. Watching it on the 5 minute chart it looked more like bids were just pulled because the price did not drop because of selling pressure. The 5 minute period ending 2:20 sold off on 1,600 shares and the 5 min. period ending 3:20 that dropped to $5.21 from $5.25 on only 700 shares. Today the stock tried to break 7 Day TL. Resistance but the volume wasn't there. If Hourly chart TL Support is broken during the regular session I can get out at a small profit. I won't wait to see if $5.10 holds. I'm waiting to see if STEC TL Sup. holds up until the next accumulation phase starts on the Hourly chart. Weekly chart stochastics fast and slow lines have not yet converged so the accumulation phase has not technically begun in that time frame yet. This means that the daily chart stochastic accumulation phase could be muted if STEC can not break $5.25 and test and confirm it as support. For a bigger picture of what has drawn me to this chart take a look at a 4 Year Monthly chart. My timing may be a bit early as I tend to be sometimes but if I have to I'll try a few positions until I get the one I'm looking for. As far as fundamentals go the company has recently begun to turn a profit. This can be a real kick in the butt to a stock price. I dug into the fundamentals more today after reading your post and I agree that fundamentals are not that great. I see my source for fundamentals did not update their March Qtr. 2004 forcast. STEC cut back estimates twice in the past month. FY 2004 was dropped back from $0.16 EPS to $0.14 EPS to $0.11 EPS. March Qtr. 04 estimates were dropped from $0.03 to break even. So yes I agree the fundamentals are not that great. Thanks for the heads up on that. JMHO |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #31136 - Ignore EWZuber |
2/18/2004 8:29:22 PM GIGM... Broke TL Res. today. Stochastics indicate this one will make a long term move higher. NAVR...Moved up very nicely yesterday after forming a Morning Star Dragonfly Doji ( confirmed today ) and is basing at the top of the hourly chart stochastic cycle without selling off much. Buying volume has been much greater than selling volume even during the distribution phase. NAVR has yet to break primary TL Resistance though at $6.58 ( & falling ). XYBR...Looking very interesting. A long term wedge pattern is coming to a conclusion and the stock is oversold on Weekly and daily charts while moving higher using the 25 WK.MA as support. This puts the odds at a move higher coming out of the wedge. Has already bounced up off the 25 WK.MA. ARBA...Looks like it has a good chance of breaking higher out of a 17 Month wedge pattern. With Weekly and Daily chart Stochasticas aligning up in accumulation phase soon. JMHO |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #31138 - Ignore EWZuber |
2/18/2004 9:47:19 PM TMTA, looks good, testing the 25 WK.MA as support and oversold on Daily and Weekly chart. I would want to see a break of TL. Resistance on hourly chart now @ $3.56 ( & falling ). Next higher TL Resistance at $3.76 ( & falling ). .COMP, Appears to be lining up to retest the 25 DMA as resistance. Looks like it wants to break through as weekly chart stochastics fast and slow lines are beginning to converge while Dialy chart stochastics fast line is crossing above the slow line with a cycle low of only a mildly oversold value of 30. This is usually a very bullish indication to see the distribution phase so muted. It typically indicates an in phase condition ( accumulation phase in this case ) between two or more stochastic waves of different time frames. If NASDAQ doesn't break above 2154 during this Weekly chart cycle then I suspect we will start to feel the Monthly chart stochastics slow things down a bit. JMHO |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #31140 - Ignore EWZuber |
2/19/2004 10:14:56 AM STEC came up against new TL Res. @ $5.30 ( formed from the gap to yesterdays high ) this morning and was hit with huge Asks. Sold for a 2% profit @ $5.29. Still watching it for a new entry. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #31154 - Ignore EWZuber |
2/20/2004 1:16:08 PM .COMP broke serious long term 1 Year TL Support this morning along with the 50 DMA. It will be interesting to see what happens when it tests the 50 DMA as resistance. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #31157 - Ignore EWZuber |
2/20/2004 4:45:16 PM XYBR broke TL Resistance on the hourly chart in the final hour of the session. XYBR has held the 25 WK.MA as support on a Weekly closing basis and Weekly chart stochasticsis are a bit oversold @ 18 and todays action brought about a complete convergence of the stochastic fast and slow lines on Daily charts. Indicating the likelyhood of the start of a new accumulation phase in that time frame. Picked up a bit at the TL break @ $1.73. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #31167 - Ignore EWZuber |
2/22/2004 3:15:46 AM TxTrapper Happened to look at the WRLT chart tonight and it looks like it may be trying to bounce here at this Trendline Support @ $1.88. It's now oversold on the Weekly chart. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #31179 - Ignore EWZuber |
2/23/2004 4:04:04 AM LWSN...Looking interesting. Bounced up off of the 25 WK.MA on Friday. It is overbought on Hourly chart now so will wait for a base, a break of TL Resistance to enter. SUNW...looking strong. Will watch for a break of TL Res. here also. That is sitting at ~ $5.49 ( & falling ) right now on hourly chart. 2.5 Month TL. Suppoprt at $5.40 ( & rising steeply ). Seems to be resistance at $5.44 from the cycle high of 6/13. SIRI...testing the 50 DMA as support. Will watch for same entry patterns. TL. Res. at about $2.89 on Hourly chart. SIRI has tested the 15 WK.MA as Support and was confirmed. Weekly chart Stochastics attempting to +xover. daily chart stochastics F & S lines have converged. CHTR...worth watching for a bounce up off of 6 Month TL. Support @ $4.10 or a break of short term TL. Res. on Hourly chart @ $4.54. NAVR...For a break of TL. Res. on Hourly chart @ $6.29. |
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