| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Just a Heads Up | << 1 ... 32 33 34 35 36 ... 50 >>Post Follow-up |
| cegis 235 posts msg #31301 - Ignore cegis |
3/5/2004 8:23:01 PM Hi Don, The rumor I heard is that a market maker is looking for some added liquidity, so he makes a small (like 100 shares), unreasonable trade with another MM, at something that'll trip a bunch of stops (usually way off current bid/ask). Result: Instant market orders that they can snap up at their desired price... I watch several stocks a day on Ameritrade's real time charts, and see these spikes almost daily. Depending on the stock, I might see it three or four times on one stock in a given day! I also see some big blocks cross the tape somewhat off current price. My gut tells me these trades were made earlier, and are crossing the tape "late". Or, maybe selling 50,000 or 100,000 shares in one chunk requres some "slack"... (Although I have no real basis for these guesses...) Physical stops force discipline, but they CAN be have a down side. Mental stops REQUIRE discipline, so don't use them if you don't got it! C |
| gscott66 7 posts msg #31303 - Ignore gscott66 |
3/5/2004 9:52:52 PM Hello, I am new to SF and I was wondering if the Yahoo group (Muddy) is still active and is it worth joining. I just finished reading some of the "one day shoot out" dialogue from last year and I'm a little confused about the current state of the union. Is John G. and RumpledOne still around? Also, any other advice or guidance is greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance! PS...what is the most consistant filter being used at the moment? Scott |
| donblack32 17 posts msg #31305 - Ignore donblack32 |
3/5/2004 11:22:12 PM Thanks cegis and wallman for taking the time to sooth my pain. Wallman, could you elaborate a little on your comments about the 52 week high and low and the spread, risk/reward. |
| txtrapper 548 posts msg #31309 - Ignore txtrapper |
3/6/2004 2:39:54 PM gscott66 3/5/2004 9:52:52 PM Hello, I am new to SF and I was wondering if the Yahoo group (Muddy) is still active and is it worth joining. -------------------- Comment; The http://groups.yahoo.com/group/StockFetcher/ is the Muddy Group and is very active. As far as consistant filters the MM three day down is the best filter for consistancy day in day out. TxTrapper |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #31313 - Ignore EWZuber |
3/7/2004 3:56:33 AM donblack32, here's another theory. Someone may have seen that there was a a huge block at a stop loss around $3.45. The potential buyers may have waited until there was a minimum of shares that were between the current Bid and the stop loss. When the time was right they hit the market with a block 'market sell' that was calculated to take out all buyers down to the big block of shares that was sitting on a stop loss. When the stop price was met these shares then became available as a 'sell @ market' and whoever manipulated the market bought them up fast and cheap. Very dirty business. According to my intraday charts there were a huge number if shares traded during that 1 minute time period. It was the biggest volume of the day during any 1 minute period. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #31319 - Ignore EWZuber |
3/8/2004 3:09:29 AM EAG...looks very good for Monday. I will be watching for a break of TL resistance. |
| wallman 299 posts msg #31320 - Ignore wallman |
3/8/2004 8:09:24 AM ZUB, yes EAG for Monday does look good,i like the chances of RSTN and BABY also |
| abkhn00 4 posts msg #31337 - Ignore abkhn00 |
3/9/2004 6:31:48 PM Zube, Do you think this bull run is over? Looking at slow stochastic(5,3) I would have to say it is. The 5 year monthly has broken down for naz and is set to for sp500. the 10 year quarterly seems poised to break down as well. I locked in my profits on 401k and am getting ready to invest in a bear fund and am looking for some confirmation. Thanks. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #31338 - Ignore EWZuber |
3/9/2004 8:41:53 PM abkhn00 Here'my take on it. I suspect that the Monthly chart cycle will take us through a distribution phase at least through the Summer. What needs to be seen is what happens when/if the Monthly charts tests the 10, 15 and 25 Month Moving Averages at 1,900, 1,725, & 1,615 ( & rising ) respectively. As you mentioned the Quarterly chart is topping out in an overbought condition. No I don't think this Bull run is over. I suspect this is just a typical long term distribution phase within a Bull market. But I try not to get too much of a predisposed opinion, rather I just watch support and resistance areas and the interaction between stochastics on several charting periods. The bear market fund sounds like a good idea for a few months, IMO. Today .COMP broke through support at the 100 DMA. Right now it looks like it will be testing the 25 WK.MA as support at 1,977. .COMP should be just about oversold enough to hold up around that level. When the next Weekly chart stochastic cycle fast line crosses BELOW the slow line, look out. I say this because the Monthly, Weekly and at some point the Daily charts also, will all be in phase in distribution mode. I suspect it will be a very good time to try short positions. That may not be far off. This last fast line cross ABOVE the slow line on Weekly charts ( accumulation phase ) didn't even get off ther ground yet. This indicates how much the Monthly chart distribution phase is affecting the Weekly chart cycle now. The downward trend is building as Monthly chart distribution phase builds momentum. Notice that the 25 DMA has been resistance for the past 6 weeks or so. I am only taking long positions after a break of Trendline Resistance now because too many support areas are being violated. Also taking profits rather quickly these days because of the downward tendency of prices. I'm finding that instead of waiting for a break of Trendline Support to close a position, it has been better to close them at resistance. All JMHO EMRG moving up I suspect. Watching for a break of TL Resistance at about $1.96 ( & falling ). Bought some earlier today and sold it after hours @ $2.12 so it looks like it may gap higher in the morning. Caution is advised. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #31357 - Ignore EWZuber |
3/10/2004 6:26:14 PM EMRG gapped and sold off as expected. Big money has been repeatedly using this ploy to get more money for their shares, baiting the little guy into buying at ridiculously high prices then selling into the strength. .COMP bounced up exactly off of 1,977, attempted to form a double bottom on the 5 minute chart over the course of an hour but it failed. It dropped below 1,977, then raised up to test it as resistance. When it was confirmed as resistance the index cratered. Dropping precipitously to 1,963. .COMP is the most oversold on Daily charts that it has been all year at a stochastic value of 3.5. Next support at about 1,900. If we don't see a bounce very soon tomorrow then it looks like the 200 DMA is the next support level. Watched for an indication of accumulation at the end of the session but there didn't seem to be much. Not enough to commit even though many stocks are severely oversold. This is why lately I have been waiting for a break of TL Resistance rather than buy at support. Even today I bought CCUR on a break of TL resistance @ $3.64 on the 30 minute chart it traded higher to test resistance at the 50 HR.MA @ ~ $3.73, also forming a double top pattern, this was the exit. Then it broke down and cratered. For this act of survival I was penalized and have been reduced to only one trade left for the next 4 sessions. There is no equal access to the markets. Only the wealthy have equal access. lol. Anyhow, this is why it is important to sell at resistance during these times, IMO. It's better to make a couple bucks than lose any. JMHO |
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