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| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #31894 - Ignore EWZuber |
4/27/2004 6:27:04 PM NASDAQ tested TL Resistance again today, bouncing down on heavier volume. Testing simulated put positions entered yesterday for May 35 & 36. Watching for a test of the 25 DMA at ~ 2020 as support. Seems unlikely it will hold. SOX closed below a 1 month TL today with stochastics in distribution indicating more downside. With a new 80G hard drive & XP PRO OS allows the use of DMI(2) again on my streaming charts. Looking at a filter that looks for stocks closing the session on the Hourly Chart with rising but not overbought stochastics and rising DMI+(2), SSPI & possibly EDAP. OCTBB, WLSF. JMHO |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #31907 - Ignore EWZuber |
4/28/2004 3:23:52 PM If NASDAQ closes above 1992 today, watch for a bounce tomorrow morning. I suspect it may attempt to bounce up off of Trendline support. JMHO |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #31913 - Ignore EWZuber |
4/28/2004 5:19:58 PM Sim puts on the QQQs closed up +80% and +66% today after only 2 days. With NASDAQ closing below TL Support at 1992 it looks like more downside is likely in the near term. Notice that when the .COMP hit 1991.72 on the 5 minute chart, it actually gapped down to 1989.71. A gap down during the regular session is rare in an index, since it is composed of hundreds of stocks. This indicates that traders ( and computer automated trading systems ) were also watching this Trend Line. The index ran up to close the gap, tested it as resistance, confirmed it as resistance. Two possibilities in the near term, there will be an attempt to regain the Trendline as support which would result in a bit of a retracement to allow retail traders to bid the market up a bit so the institutions can clean the table again, or the drop will intensify as they often do when a Trendline is broken. Below this support is a 14 Month TL at about 1958, the 200 DMA at 1940, 10 Month MA. at 1938 and the 50 WK.MA at about 1900. Primary Trendline support that defines the Market as bullish is at ~ 1650. JMHO |
| travlr 80 posts msg #31920 - Ignore travlr |
4/28/2004 10:16:17 PM Hey Zuber, I have noticed that you place most (all?) of your support/resistance emphasis on TL's and MA's. I don't remember (with out reviewing) you ever mentioning price zone support/resistance levels, which struck me this evening. I have noticed that a lot analytical traders, such as your self, who pay attention to more of a Wykoff style of analysis, seem to place more of an emphasis on these "price zones" and volume there in. Although they do, naturally, pay attention to the TL's and MA's as well, they seem to prioritize the zones. Having respect for your methods of analysis, I wonder if you might comment on your experience with these price levels of support and resistance. Thanks. Have fun with your new piece of hardware. travlr |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #31924 - Ignore EWZuber |
4/29/2004 4:49:45 AM travlr Good point. Price does play an important role in chart analysis. Its important to look at the price at cycle tops and bottoms in all time frames as support and resistance. You may have noticed that the stochastic cycle top on the long term Monthly Charts has coincided with resistance at the highs NASDAQ made back in Jan. of 2002. We'll see this come into play more often now that the market has made a Long term Monthly Chart cycle top and dropped below that cycle high. When the next long term accumulation phase begins we will be seeing stocks rising into this resistance. There is an area of congestion, near term, at between about 2075 and 2154. I think this TL support we are testing now is very important because this trendline on the .COMP Daily Chart is part of an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern. Its a basing pattern that is forming after testing long term price resistance. If the Trendline holds it will confirm the H&S pattern as bullish. JMHO |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #31925 - Ignore EWZuber |
4/29/2004 11:42:48 AM NASDAQ rose to test the trendline as resistance this morning now at 1993. So far it has broken above it but failed to confirm on a test of support. Still a few hours left within this Hourly chart accumulation phase. 5 Min. chart is oversold now and about to move higher to test todays intraday high at 1998. Market is trying to establish a short term uptrend on the 5 min chart. JMHO |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #31929 - Ignore EWZuber |
4/29/2004 2:47:39 PM NASDAQ tested the Supporting TL at 1992 as resistance and confirmed. It dropped precipitously from there and now is testing the Supporting TL at 1958. It broke through and will have to see where it closes this session. Sim. puts are kicking butt. Up another 40% & 62 % today. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #31931 - Ignore EWZuber |
4/29/2004 7:14:56 PM Sim QQQ puts closed todays session May 36 @ +122% May 35 @ +140%. I can see one clear advantage to trading index options, it seems to reduce the complexity of the trade. When trading any stock, the vast majority will be affected by the movement of the associated index(s). Say trading AMCC, one needs to be aware of the SOX and the .COMP stochastic phase relationships ( or other technicals ) along with the stochastics for AMCC. I have found that the odds are less than optimum if you try to trade a stock if its accumulation phase is lagging the accumulation phase of its index. I have found this to be true as evidenced by backtesting screens and in actual trading. I found that a screen that looks for stocks that are oversold in both Weekly and daily charts returns the highest gains when the picks are timed to coincide with the short 1 to 3 day window where the associated index moves into accumulation. Backtesting shows that picking screen returns outside of this window results in seriously reduced performance. The best and hottest stocks in any sector are up and running at the first hint of accumulation in the associated index. The laggards are dragged along by the bullish sentiment of their peers and often lag far enough behind that by the time the index is becoming overbought the stock is just starting to show small gains. When the index goes into distribution the stock goes down with it cutting the accumulation phase short for the stock. Consequently the gains in the stock were minimal. To optimize returns the entry needs to be timed as close as possible to the first bullish technical moves in the index. With options on Indexs or tracking stocks its not necessary to deal with multiple technical pictures. It also allows for a very personal relationship with the index, trading the same chart over a period of years. Downside is that options can be a much higher risk if you're wrong. JMHO |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #31939 - Ignore EWZuber |
4/30/2004 12:30:49 PM NASDAQ about to test support around the 10 Month MA. at 1930. With the .COMP oversold on daily charts we may see a small oversold bounce but I suspect this is not the near term bottom as the Weekly Chart cycle is solidly in a distribution phase and still has a ways to go. JMHO |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #31943 - Ignore EWZuber |
4/30/2004 5:18:08 PM NASDAQ broke through support at 1930 dropping like a rock, stopped at 1919 to turn and test 1930 as resistance ( easiest to see on the 5 min. chart ) then retest 1919 as short term support. Good support at about 1900 where we have the 50 WK.MA and a little price support from the cycle low formed on 3/22 ~ 3/24. My sim. puts were both in the money as the QQQ broke below 35 today and closed them both for about 190% return each. The Convergent Stochastic Theory was instrumental in being able to predict this precipitous drop in the post of 4/26. Just signed up for a 11 Week options course on line. |
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