shillllihs
6,088 posts
msg #121613
- Ignore shillllihs |
9/29/2014 1:34:03 PM
i think it's over...
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guspenskiy13
976 posts
msg #121614
- Ignore guspenskiy13 |
9/29/2014 2:24:51 PM
what's over?
spy should bounce
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shillllihs
6,088 posts
msg #121615
- Ignore shillllihs |
9/29/2014 2:45:53 PM
I see 1-2 weeks of stagnation then a month of great recovery.
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guspenskiy13
976 posts
msg #121620
- Ignore guspenskiy13
modified |
9/30/2014 10:41:31 AM
XIV positions showing loss so far as of this morning.
p.s.
sometimes i question myself why don't i just short TVIX...with ~ -90% CAGR annually...lol
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shillllihs
6,088 posts
msg #121621
- Ignore shillllihs |
9/30/2014 11:40:38 AM
Because the spike would destroy you.
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guspenskiy13
976 posts
msg #121623
- Ignore guspenskiy13
modified |
9/30/2014 6:40:36 PM
what if you just sit on cash for margin + average down? allocate like 10% of volatility portfolio?
P.S
SPY in tight range; disregarding the gap down making higher lows...tmrw might break to either side..
What do you think of GLD/GDX? Approaching pre-2014 lows.
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shillllihs
6,088 posts
msg #121625
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
10/1/2014 12:59:04 AM
You can have a cache of margin but how much would you need? 8-1 ratio?
Works out to about 15% a year for alot of risk & very little profit.
Maybe a way to slowly buy into gapped spikes & protect with options?
I have alot of stocks appearing on my penny stock filter that have not go anywhere for 2 years. This filter works like a charm for bio tech etc. but has not for oil & metals so maybe it's a longer cycle that could be ready to pop.
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shillllihs
6,088 posts
msg #121633
- Ignore shillllihs |
10/1/2014 3:54:30 PM
SPY 193.91 VERY VERY CLOSE to my call of 191.80.
Hope it does not get there.
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shillllihs
6,088 posts
msg #121634
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
10/1/2014 5:58:10 PM
Monday or next Monday will be the continuation of the greatest bull run EVER...
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guspenskiy13
976 posts
msg #121637
- Ignore guspenskiy13 |
10/2/2014 10:12:57 AM
What if you only sell TVIX after big corrections in SPY and after we switched from backwardation back to contango?
The thing w/ volatility is that there are two types of trades you can possibly make:
1) Get long-term positions that profit from the contango daily roll yield in VIX futures
2) Use mean-reversing properties of volatility
While TVIX is not suitable for the first purpose (XIV much safer/better); there is nothing better than TVIX for playing mean-reversion (all you need is good timing).
P.S.
Looking at the chart - we can either get a great run or head lower. Depends on "which history" will repeat itself.
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