rmoseley
6 posts
msg #26760
- Ignore rmoseley |
6/6/2003 3:32:36 PM
Todd
I’m no pro but this is what I’ve seen in the short time that I’ve been following the MM (Muddy Method), this method tries to call the bottom not necessarily the break out move to the up side- I think you should hold on a bit and not get shaken out (easier said than done- I know not my money) but I also have a buy in for eni. (BTW you bought it at the top today it opened at 4.44 so you would have been ahead) I use limit orders when I’m not too sure about a stock so I didn’t get in yet. Also consider options--if you buy calls out of the money at the bottom with at least 130 days left, the price is all premium and not very effected by a down side move but greatly effected by an upside move—muddy please correct me if I'm off the mark
Thanks,
Bob
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wallman
299 posts
msg #26761
- Ignore wallman |
6/6/2003 3:44:43 PM
HI BOB, great to hear of your success with ABGX,as i said the method should work very well with options,many of these stocks take a few days to get going but when they do,they go,if you run a backtest of 10 - 20 days ago from today you will see about 95% winners, anything even remotely close to that and you will cleanup,the only problem i see is having the patience to find a TRUE PLAY,as most of these stocks don't carry options from what i've seen,but they can be found and very profitable as you've shown,keep looking and good luck,again congrats.......MUDDY
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wallman
299 posts
msg #26762
- Ignore wallman |
6/6/2003 3:58:11 PM
HI TODD,ENI opened green and around 9:40 - 9:45 was still green at $4.45 (.05 up),that's your entry,it's that simple,i have no idea where you got the idea of "waiting for support all morning" and it has never been mentioned using interday charts for anything,let alone indicators of which this method has none (other than rsi for exits at top band)the williams%r has no role in this method whatsoever,you may have confused this with another filter posting you have seen,MUDDY
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wallman
299 posts
msg #26782
- Ignore wallman |
6/7/2003 7:42:28 PM
BOB....do you know or have an opinion whether it is advantageous for a mutual fund to add an optionable stock to their portfolio over one that is not optionable or do you feel there is no difference,also,if you had bought 5,$10 sept calls on ABGX instead of oct calls what would have been the difference in profit over your $2000 gain assuming you sold them at the same time...thank you,MUDDY
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rmoseley
6 posts
msg #26786
- Ignore rmoseley |
6/8/2003 1:57:16 PM
Muddy,
I haven’t given that question much thought, though my initial thinking is that it shouldn’t matter too much although there are a few things that come to mind, one in paticular: non-optionable stock are generally smaller stocks and may be susceptible to lager moves especially with institutional investment, anyway I need to think on that one a while. As for ABGX it would have been 1000 vs 2000, and that’s because with the extra time the stock has a greater chance of running higher, I always buy just out of the money and go for a longer time 100-130 this way there is greater volatility to the up side if the stock does move, and very little to the down side because the price is all premium
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wallman
299 posts
msg #26792
- Ignore wallman |
6/8/2003 6:32:28 PM
HI BOB, thanks for the input,the reason i asked the mutual fund ? is that by bumping the volume down to 50000 and adding "and stock is optionable" pulls up awesome backtest numbers,it seems to get the stocks that are the highest % gainers of the highest % gainers of the basic filter, maybe coincidence, but i'm thinking that mutuals may be heavy into these optionable stocks for some reason,it just seems like an abnormally high % of these stocks also stay running longer than the basic filter stocks,since mutual funds tend to hold longer than individual investers and add blocks of these stocks every week or so i'm thinking this could be a reason,for instance on a backtest of march 12, 60 days ago as of today,there was 41 gainers and 3 losers,the amazing thing to me though was that of those 41 gainers,36 were over 40%,many of these had steady weekly rises which could indicate steady block buying from mutual funds,i will investigate this further and if i find out anything will post but it looks real interesting right now.......GOOD LUCK,MUDDY
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defghca
150 posts
msg #26794
- Ignore defghca |
6/8/2003 8:17:11 PM
wallman
i tought we were posting on bollinger2 and closing down this one
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ig0r
51 posts
msg #26795
- Ignore ig0r |
6/8/2003 8:54:29 PM
doesn't really matter anymore, it's easier to get to the last page of a thread now with the tabs
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dmindy
42 posts
msg #26800
- Ignore dmindy |
6/9/2003 10:56:21 AM
Hi all.
Just a quick question, as I want to make sure I'm doing everything ok.
I realize the market in general is down today but I didn't get any candidates that met the "Open green, and are green at 9:50" rule.
Did anyone have better luck evaluation the candidates from Friday?
Thanks!
Doug
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wallman
299 posts
msg #26805
- Ignore wallman |
6/9/2003 8:05:53 PM
HI DOUG,i'll try to describe what i saw at open and at 9:45(time that i use),this is with a 50,000 bumpdown from fridays filter,VLNC up .05 at open - red 9:45(no play), DVI up .03 at open - even at 9:45(no play then,but could wait), RNBO up .15 at open - up .01(ask +.07 so up .08)at 9:45 (play), IST and GTSI red all the way(no play), FMXI up .07 at open - up .06 at 9:45(no play for me as it was 5% up , over my 3% rule)and a failure from thursday FIBR, up .04 at open - up .03 at 9;45 (play)......of course someone may have seen something a little different depending on the exact time,tick, that they saw but this should give you an idea of how it went today, RNBO a play around +.08, FIBR a play around +.03, DVI possible if you needed 3 stocks and you waited for green, FMXI a play if you needed a 3rd or 4th stock and you either accept a 5% entry or you waited for a pullback but still to the upside.....GOOD LUCK,MUDDY
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