| StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · bollinger bands | << 1 ... 11 12 13 14 15 ... 23 >>Post Follow-up |
| sooquiet 3 posts msg #26807 - Ignore sooquiet |
6/9/2003 9:19:13 PM Muddy.....First of all, thanks for the screen. I can honestly say that your method has both worked for me financially as well as helped me spend more time at the office doing what I'm supposed to be doing instead of glued to the computer all day watching every stock tick. Now for the question....I know that you have related in the past that some of the better movers come from previous days' failures. I have also found that to be the case at times. However, do you regularly monitor good candidates that failed for days waiting for a green move or do you generally only do so when there are no good candidates in the current screen? I find myself sometimes watching previous failures more then current candidates, and after a few days I may be watching more previous failures for a turn then I am current prospects. I guess what I'm wondering is when do you prefer previous failures that turn green over current prospects? Thanks......Steve |
| wallman 299 posts msg #26810 - Ignore wallman |
6/9/2003 11:34:10 PM HI STEVE,glad to hear it's working well for you,i like the fact also that i'm basically done by 10AM,if i know i don't need a play for that day i don't even have to watch the market at all.....i will always go back 1 day to look for failures,most times that's all as i found the same thing as you,watching them more than current canidates,if todays screen pulls up nothing of interest then i will go back a few more days, i rate the failures on the same level as current canidates,though i could be wrong here as i have found them to be pretty strong but right now for me i'll leave it the way i do it,but if you feel otherwise you could very well be right,one thing i do do with the failures though is i don't require BOTH tail and volume to look for green on open,just 1 seems to do just fine,as i feel being a failure makes up for the lack of one of those requirements,hope that's clear,but of course you check it out,as you must be comfortable with any method you trade to make it work best....GOOD LUCK, MUDDY |
| dmindy 42 posts msg #26812 - Ignore dmindy |
6/10/2003 1:26:56 AM Hey thanks Muddy that helps a lot. I didn't even bother to go look at the previous day's failures, or how the bid/ask was effecting things. Both great ideas that seem pretty obvious now that someone else has said it. :) In any case I wasn't at all disappointed as I think's a good thing if a "system" is complete enough to tell you when to stay the heck out of the market for a day. :) I just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing anything. Turn out I was! Thanks for the play by play, very helpful! Thanks again! Doug |
| wallman 299 posts msg #26813 - Ignore wallman |
6/10/2003 6:56:39 AM HI DOUG,you're welcome, glad that helped,your attitude that you weren't dissapointed with a "no play" day is exactually what one should have with this method as there seems to be many good plays that come along,just some days there are none,that's the importance of the safety net of entering on green,it keeps you out of alot of losing trades,the ones that open red and continue down,as i've said before if you are playing ANY bottomfishing method IMO you should always wait for some kind of move up to begin,with the bb method i feel that alot of the downside has already been removed from these stocks,especially ones that are hovering around their 52 week lows,therefor a "running start" on these stocks gives you a very good edge,i know alot of folks are concerned with a overall market turndown ,of course this is no guarantee,but i do know that on a backtest of this filter on the most recent one of jan to march,the enter on green rule kept you out of a whole bunch of losing trades that you see on a backtest of this filter,one thing that i may not have mentioned is that once you think you have identified a market turndown,it is advisable to push your enter on green time up to 10 a.m or even beyond,as late as 10:30 or whatever you feel comfortable with,after some time you should start to get your own feel with this method,again you need patience,you'll see some that get away and run on you but just try to forget it,in times like those it's much better to play it safe than be sorry,just try to keep in mind that when the market does finally turn back up that's when you'll make your good $,so far just from my experiance you shouldn't have too much trouble finding good , solid,plays in a decent to good market,so always try to keep that in mind,also during that time you always want to try to look at previous failures from as far back as 3 days a little harder,looking for say 5 down days in a row,which i felt during that time gave me an extra edge as it increased the odds of a continued move up once we see green at an open,again nothing is for sure in the markets but if you try to stack the odds as much as possible on your side you should come through those times fine,ready to strike when the markets reverse back up....GOOD LUCK,MUDDY |
| todddunning 31 posts msg #26820 - Ignore todddunning |
6/11/2003 1:59:31 PM Hey Muddy let me add my thanks - I'm still struggling with ENI buy from June 5 but assumed I'd have to scrape a few stops before it all gels. You made a signifigant point June 8 that may have gotten lost in the shuffle; adding optionable stocks to the filter, your theory being the mutuals stayed with them much longer, possibly adding blocks over time. So you tested 41, and 36 went over 40% over time - truly amazing. So I made: SHOW STOCKS WHERE CLOSE HAS BEEN DECREASING OVER THE LAST 3 DAYS AND AVERAGE VOLUME(90) IS ABOVE 50,000 AND CLOSE PRICE IS BETWEEN 1 AND 10 AND PRICE TOUCHED LOWER BOLLINGER BAND(20) AND STOCK IS OPTIONABLE I got MIR, DYN CGO to papertrade June 11. Only CGO opened green but was at least holding midday. So now to jump into your shoes Muddy, the next day, would you filter a new set, or would you see how MIR and DYN open and then move? Or both? |
| todddunning 31 posts msg #26821 - Ignore todddunning |
6/11/2003 2:39:45 PM Hey Muddy let me add my thanks - I'm still struggling with ENI buy from June 5 but assumed I'd have to scrape a few stops before it all gels. You made a signifigant point June 8 that may have gotten lost in the shuffle; adding optionable stocks to the filter, your theory being the mutuals stayed with them much longer, possibly adding blocks over time. So you tested 41, and 36 went over 40% over time - truly amazing. So I made: SHOW STOCKS WHERE CLOSE HAS BEEN DECREASING OVER THE LAST 3 DAYS AND AVERAGE VOLUME(90) IS ABOVE 50,000 AND CLOSE PRICE IS BETWEEN 1 AND 10 AND PRICE TOUCHED LOWER BOLLINGER BAND(20) AND STOCK IS OPTIONABLE I got MIR, DYN CGO to papertrade June 11. Only CGO opened green but was at least holding midday. So now to jump into your shoes Muddy, the next day, would you filter a new set, or would you see how MIR and DYN open and then move? Or both? |
| wallman 299 posts msg #26822 - Ignore wallman |
6/11/2003 4:29:10 PM HI TODD,you are welcome, first for me CGO would not have been a watch for green open stock as i would have discarded it because it had hardly any tail at all on 6 - 10,plus the fact that in comparison the top shadow was larger than the small tail that it did show,MIR and DYN both did fit and also ironically they both were on my "good list" that i talk about in earlier posts,the way i see it right now the optionable stocks show such large gains (coincidence maybe?)over a few weeks it looks like they would be worth waiting all day for to first show green,then we buy,use whatever criteria you wish to rank them as first to look at,i still like my method of ranking them with price and volume as described in earlier posts,which for me today would have put MIR at a 4 and DYN at a 8 (i only match 10 of the 14)so i would have watched MIR for green first,as for tomorrow if MIR or DYN were still around or under 3% from todays opening price they should still be good picks,as long as they show some green.. if you are going to follow these optionable stocks,since there are not that many,it might be wise to keep a list of maybe 5 - 6 days back and watch for ones that are still failures,just refresh it everyday and drop your 5th or 6th day off,you shouldn't have that many to watch as i can see so far,when you see one finally go green and hold for 5 minutes or so,you could have a very nice run ahead of you,if you come up with anything please post it,this could be a real good addition to the method, thanks ,MUDDY |
| todddunning 31 posts msg #26823 - Ignore todddunning |
6/11/2003 6:45:01 PM "...AND STOCK IS OPTIONABLE" checked out today. MIR and DYN closed up 5.1% and 2.7% the first day. Of course there was a big runup today so I will regularly report results on the "optionable" filter 50K vol/back 5 days, as Muddy suggests. And I have to join others in thanking Muddy for his selflessness and generosity that are almost as impressive as the filter itself...(almost, I said)...! |
| wallman 299 posts msg #26824 - Ignore wallman |
6/11/2003 8:22:10 PM TODD,THANKS,that's pretty funny, the thing that i've noticed just in the past few days with these option matches is they make their big moves in 1 or 2 ticks on very heavy volume,but before and after those moves they trade very quiet,MIR and DYN around 2:30 today and WGRD near the close yesterday and today and failures from yesterday CCK and RSTO again on very heavy volume on a few ticks right around 10 to 10:30 am,you're right about it being a good market day,but i've noticed it with others(sorry,don't remember who)in the last few days also,point being that this buying volume may very well be coming from institutions and mutuals as i doubt it's coming from guys like us,it's too huge,IF this is the case, it's a great thing as i said because of the block buying every few days and the "me too" effect where one mutual fund manager sees another manager getting in a "live" stock and doesn't want to underpreform him,just wants to keep up with him so he buys the stock also regardless whether he really likes it or not,figureing he'll always have a job as long as he doesn't underperform,just stay even...so this could be real good for us,anyway i'm watching very closely,any edge we can get we should take,every edge we get can add up significantly over time .....see ya, MUDDY |
| todddunning 31 posts msg #26825 - Ignore todddunning |
6/11/2003 9:24:28 PM MUDDY BB FILTER GROUP? This thread has been something for me; probably for the rest of you too. Been thinking of a way to return the favor to Muddy and help ourselves do better; "we" means the readers here: 1. Each night, we are all probably coming up with the exact same BB filter matches, duplicating our work. And then we go off and trade on our own, without oversight or input from others here. 2. Muddy should not do this out of charity. We each have personal logs, research and findings on the method that should be available in one central place for everybody's benefit - including Muddy's. 3. There are many years of collective experience in related skills (TA, money mgt.) on this thread. How can it be centralized to help everyone here? 4. This thread is a great way to discuss Muddy's method in general, but hour-by-hour (or live) group analysis of daily picks and strategy are unavailable. 5. I want to go somewhere nightly (Members only) to post my picks and my reasoning, and see what everybody else is doing and why. And visit again in the morning to make sure we are all pulling the right trigger at the right time. 6. Passwords only to those who contribute actively. New variations of every kind proposed and tested. 7. Muddy in charge. Anyone feel similiarly? |
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