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| wallman 299 posts msg #26331 - Ignore wallman |
4/30/2003 10:32:17 AM HI DAB, good ?'s,first, i don't daytrade them,did at first to just try to get a couple % a day,did that pretty consistantly but then would watch them run to over 10% in a matter of days too many times so what i do now is put a 5% mental stop on the stock until it reaches mid bb's,then tighten it to 3% and keep that until it touches top bb when i will sell when RSI(14) shows 75 or more or 3% trailer is hit,whichever comes first,as an example i bought MNTG from the 4-11 screen which i adjusted to ave volume of 200,000 to cut down to 10 the number of stocks i must chart(just my preference),EWJ is thrown out for me as it's an ETF and they usually have little volitily and is no use to me,MNTG has now touched top bb with an RSI of 73.4 so i will take my profit if it reaches 75 near the close,from that same screen i also bought MUSE which has touched top bb with a 67 RSI so i'm o.k.there BUT it reached a closing high of $7 which made my 3% trailer $6.79 which it hit and so i sold,it may very well start to run again,but as a 32% gain in 9 days i'm thankful for that and don't worry about it,i'll just go on to the next one and see what happens.....GOOD LUCK |
| wallman 299 posts msg #26332 - Ignore wallman |
4/30/2003 11:13:28 AM IHV1, that is the screen to use for shorting,although i've found increasing the number of up days from 3 to four worked much better and also i think you'll find making the price range $20 and up is what works best,also don't forget that if you are using a bottom tail on bottom bb's as a long buy indication you have to reverse it to look for a top shadow on the last candle as a short sell indication,which shows there was selling pressure going on which in conjuction with a volume increase is usually not a good continuation sign at the top bb,i found that if the RSI is above 75 combined with those conditions stated above the stock is particularity due to drop in the next few days,but you have to be careful with them cause many only take a 4-5 day breather before starting back up to top bb's,i've found it much more difficult to short than go long,especially if you are new to it,also you run into the issue of the "uptick" rule and the availability of shares to short from your broker,not to mention that you must set up a margin account to short....as for the $1 to $10 price range i use, your right that it does work with any price stocks,any price will give generally the same win% but the low priced stocks give much higher % gains for the same amount of risk,that's what i'm after.....GOOD LUCK,MUDDY |
| dabonenose 26 posts msg #26333 - Ignore dabonenose |
4/30/2003 11:23:37 AM Wallman,,,I sifted out KOPN yesterday and PRGX today. I played KOPN for a 7% gain(didn't want to be greedy so I sold). Today it looks strong again. PRGX is strong so far as well. What I saw in both was that after the initial gap up, they both closed it by 10 a.m. I mention this because it seems that they might be giving a great entry here. Do you try to buy the gap, or do you just pay the ask wherever it is at 9:50? Right now I am home trading until June 1st., and then afterwards, every other week. Just curious, do you trade in any chat rooms, etc., where thoughts could be exchanged during business hours? ps,,sorry if I'm wearing you out,,,LOL. tkx Dab |
| wallman 299 posts msg #26334 - Ignore wallman |
4/30/2003 7:43:55 PM HI DAB,you are a quick learner as they were 2 good picks,one for each day,as for filling gaps,myself i just watch the open price and if it's up i wait for about 15 mins to see if it's still around there,then buy,no set rule just kinda a feel thing you develop over time,however i won't pay more than 3% above previous days close including ask price,i feel this is giving away too much at the start of a trade,i also bought KOPN as i saw it open .08 up and hang around there for awhile,congrats on a quick 7% gain,as for PRGX that would have been a buy for me had i had any room,great chart(huge volume increase in last 2 days,good tail which was just the opposite of the day before when it showed a shadow on top)and good entry as i saw it open .05 up and be just a little higher 15 mins later.........as for chatrooms i completly aviod them,i'm not trying to be smart but i want no ones opinion other than my own on a stock i hold or am considering buying and no news, all i want to know is the ticker symbol,nothing else,i try to trade in a methodical,unemotional manner letting the filter,the chart and the entry dictate what and when to buy and the price(i.e. my mental stop) and/or RSI(if it's touching top bb)dictate when to sell...and no,your ?'s aren't a bother,i had them also when i started out...GOOD LUCK |
| dabonenose 26 posts msg #26335 - Ignore dabonenose |
4/30/2003 9:22:16 PM Wallman,,,Thanks for the feedback. With the markets bumping up against resistance I see the possibility of substantial gains to be made on the short side as well. After reversing some of the components in your screen I noticed that it generates some very decent short plays from extremely overbought conditions. When/if the mkt decides to correct the historical lows of the vin and the vix, I want to have some exposure short. Don't blame you about chat rooms,,,LOL. What I was referring to was a room where the traders basically use the same strategy and then develope new strategies as needed, etc. tkx, Dab |
| wallman 299 posts msg #26336 - Ignore wallman |
4/30/2003 9:53:21 PM HI DAB, i didn't understand that you meant a room with similiar type traders/developmental theory ideas,if you are new to trading and your not confident and/or happy with your method then i would say it's an excellent idea,one of the best traders i personally knew used to say..."closed minds = closed accounts" and i think that is very true,for myself i traded basically the same system for over 36 years with consistantly high annual returns and mothballed that for the bb method that i now use,so you can see that i must be very pleased with my trading now or otherwise i would consider entering a trading room as you describe or retuning to my old system.......as for shorts if you read the above posts about the headaches invovled,and the fact that i've traded my method well in some really crappy market periods(so far)would deter me from shorting,but that's just me and if you want to try don't let anyone discourage you,prove to yourself if it's profitable or not SEE YA |
| janeiro 25 posts msg #26337 - Ignore janeiro |
5/1/2003 8:37:22 AM Wallman, I papertraded for a while with your method...and finally last Fri 04-25 I bought ALGN......22% gain so far....!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THX. PS I hope one day to have the chance to thank u personally |
| defghca 150 posts msg #26338 - Ignore defghca |
5/1/2003 9:33:57 AM wallman why not post your old system here, we might be interested !!! |
| no4j 45 posts msg #26339 - Ignore no4j |
5/1/2003 9:40:21 AM Wallman, Thanks again. I have been using use sytem for 3 days and haven't sold any yet but they are all green! I'm taking a liking to it for sure. Discipline will be the name of the game. One more question.... What do you think is a typical holding time for this system. I'm asking because of money management. If I set a fixed amount for this system, it would help to get an idea of approx. how many positions I could be holding on average. My guess from what I can already see is about 8-10 days. That would equate to 8-10 positions so a good amount to invest in each stock would be about 10% of the allocated funds for this system. Am I close? |
| wallman 299 posts msg #26340 - Ignore wallman |
5/1/2003 11:49:08 AM HI NO4J, you are very close,in fact i would say 8-10 days myself,if i understand your ? correctly i think you are saying if you have 20k to play you will play 10 stocks @ 2k each? if this is what you meant then that is great to begin with as it gives you alot of practice in realtime (way different than papertrading)as to when to enter,usage of stops,your limit as to what % you are willing to pay over yesterday's close and to find out what your tolerance is when/if you should have 3 or more losers/quick stopouts in a row,nothing can take the place of finding out these things in realtime,IMO the object of the first few months is not to see how much $ you can make but to get a feel for what your "stick to" rules will be,it's hard to make max gains when you are holding 10 stocks at once anyway, you are too diversified ,after you think you have the confidence and everything in place,THEN it's time to go after the real $,that's when i think that 20k port should be split between only 3-4 stocks,even 1-2 if you feel confident enough,from my experiance with this method in the last 18 months in normal times this approach can make very good $ but in "hot" periods as it seems to be in now,the $ is even better,if you use the 1-4 stock approach it is absolutly necessary that you stick to your stops,an example that happened to me a few months back is i had 3 quick stopouts in a row at a 5% loss each,on my 4th trade i had a 22% gain in 4 days,by sticking to my stops this allowed me to have a 7% gain on these 4 trades over about 7 days or 1% a day on only 1 win and three losses...great to hear your 3 picks are all green...GOOD LUCK,MUDDY |
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