| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Just a Heads Up | << 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 ... 50 >>Post Follow-up |
| ItsL8rHere 2 posts msg #29365 - Ignore ItsL8rHere |
10/19/2003 4:58:13 PM Here is a link to a chart at SF.. check out the 3rd week of Sept. This is a prime example to write a filter re: ADX crossovers.. anyone can help? http://www.stockfetcher.com/advchart?hog=GHKHCKIAKBDEKBDCHIBAEDJJBBIGBDJ&ts=1066596793 |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29366 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/19/2003 8:43:10 PM jthehut excited I am not. lol. I see the same support around $15.57 ~ $15.80 and stronger support at longer term trendline at $14 ( & rising ). Here's what I'm looking at. Between May and August NVDA formed a head & shoulders pattern. The peak was at about $28 and the neckline was violated at about $23. That gives us a $5+- drop below the neckline to satisfy the pattern completion and gives us a downside target of around $18 + -. That has occurred. A large wedge pattern has formed starting on 6/6/03. Trendline resistance is at about $19 ( & falling ). The Monthly chart stochastic wave is out of phase with the NASDAQ monthly chart stochastic wave this is why NVDA has been dropping while the NASDAQ has been climbing. Also the weekly chart stochastic wave is trying to +xover. It may not happen this cycle but before long I expect the long term Monthly chart to have a fast line cross above the slow line. I am watching NVDA now because it is the weekly chart stochastic wave that will be the catalyst for the monthly chart wave to +cross over. So this is prerequisite to seeing a change of the trend. I'm watching for the changing trend indications now before they are obvious to everyone cause thats when the smart money gets in not after momentum players and everyone else has already seen it. I like to watch a stock that appears to be making a trend change well in advance. These have always been my most successful positions. This allows one plenty of time to form a strategy and adjust it as the time for entry grows near. A +xover of the Monthly chart cycle could easily drive NVDA through resistance at $19. If that happens then technicians will jump on it driving it higher and then the momentum players will get on board. Institutions will have bought near the bottom. If the move doesn't materialize due to poor earnings growth or whatever thats ok too. No harm done. Which brings up another point. Earnings in July were up +366% over the same qtr. last year and the Oct. quarter is projected to be +116% over the same qtr. last year. NVDA's FY 2003 ends in Jan. and the FY 2004 earnings are projected to have +40% growth over FY 2003. I'm seeing a possible convergence of events here between technicals and fundamentals. The market is forward looking. If the market thinks that NVDA will be able to realize this projected growth then institutions will be trying to sneek into positions, buying at dips, without alerting the masses. The charts will indicate this but it will be very subtle at first. This is what I'm looking for now. With 56% institutional ownership there is ample room for institutional buying which is what really drives a stock higher. JMHO |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29388 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/20/2003 7:45:42 PM NVDA moved up just a tad today and the 15 DMA held as support. The encouraging sign in todays action is the Daily chart stochastics fast line and slow line are starting to converge. This could be signaling the beginning of a new accumulation phase which could easily drive NVDA above resistance at the 25 & 50 DMAs. The 50 DMA is flattening out which means that NVDA will have to be aggressive in the short term to catch it, break above it and test it as support if this is going to happen any time soon. The 25 DMA is still in too much of a downtrend to act as support for more than about a single session. Short term trendline resistance is at $17.14 ( & falling ). Most easily seen on the hourly chart. If the stock can break this short term resistance tomorrow and close above it, this would be a huge step toward breaking the 25 & 50 DMAs because the stock is overbought on the hourly chart and a continuation of this move would be a violation of the stochastic cycle and would start the oscillation process in an overbought condition. A very bullish indication. Also it would bring on a stochastic +xover on daily charts and then Weekly, Daily and Hourly waves would each be converged in accumulation phase. But we will have to wait and see. JMHO |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29392 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/21/2003 2:41:57 PM Intraday follow up. NVDA gapped up a tad this morning and used the 25 DMA as temporary support. As I mentioned before this will not work longer term but acts as a good stepping stone temporarily. Consequently NVDA will need to get above the 50 DMA in a hurry. I suspect it will. The 50 DMA is being tested as resistance right now. Even if it holds as resistance today I suspect tomorrow morning NVDA will gap above the 50 DMA and test it as support or just break through it on an intraday run. Volume is very good today and i suspect institutions are loading up. The scene has been set and it looks like NVDA is about to start a long term move higher. But thats JMHO |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29394 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/21/2003 2:50:32 PM Looks like something might be happening at AAC. The stock that I started this thread with. It has been basing for quite a while and it looks like it may be getting ready to finally move. I suspect will know shortly. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29401 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/21/2003 5:38:23 PM After the close, NVDA closed todays gap in intraday trading and tested the 50 DMA as resistance and it held. NVDA violated the Hourly chart stochastic cycle which drove the Daily chart stochastic cycle to +xover as anticipated. NVDA can not stay here though. So it seems now we have a few possibilities. One, NVDA could drop to test short term trendline supprt at $17.35 on the 5 minute chart. Two, NVDA could gap up in the morning to the 50 DMA @ $17.80. Three, NVDA could complete the Hourly chart stochastic distribution cycle and drop to test the 15 HR.MA @ $17.14 ( & rising ). Four, NVDA will stay on the 25 DMA and ride it down. I suspect that NVDA will gap up above the 50 DMA and test it as support. These intraday support levels mean nothing to end of day traders. Big money realizes this. I suspect they also realize that NVDA can not find lasting support here because the 25 DMA is in a downtrend. With Daily, weekly and Quarterly chart waves all in phase and in accumulation with Monthly chart fast and slow lines converging at a cycle bottom, the stock should have a substantial upwared momentum building, which we have already evidenced. Volume is building. Notice how it took a break above the 25 DMA and short term 4 day TL resistance to attract enough attention to build the volume. While Big money has been entering positions for about 3 weeks. JMHO Guess we'll see tomorrow. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29409 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/22/2003 1:15:32 PM Intraday, NVDA opened lower due to a major gap down at the open in the markets. All indexes have been well into the red today with the exception of the Natural Gas index ( XNG ) and Gold & Silver Index ( XAU ). The SOX is down ( -2.5% ) as I write this and yet NVDA is down only ( -0.23% ). This attests to the individual strength of the stock. This market pressure has caused the stock to settle for the 25 DMA as support today again and this is not good. If this continues it will further the spread between NVDA and good support at the 50 DMA. The NASDAQ has a double top looking pattern combined with a head & shoulders pattern on hourly charts. It is oversold on hourly charts right now so it is important that we see some buying in the second half of the session or face the possibility of a substantial pullback. If this Weekly accumulation phase is muted then the markets are in for a big pullback and this will be the confirmation that the Monthly chart is indeed influencing shorter term waves and that the Monthly chart stochastic distribution phase has begun. Its just too early to tell for sure, IMO. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29427 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/23/2003 9:47:26 AM Before the open Markets to open lower again today after more poor tech earnings. FLEX came in low among others. The uptrend for NVDA that began on 9/29 is still intact and trendline support sits at $16.72 ( & rising ). |
| TheRumpledOne 6,529 posts msg #29431 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/23/2003 1:27:24 PM EWZuber: Thank you for persisting even though there are a few hard-headed people here who rather argue than learn. "Some people just can't be reached." I appreciate your efforts. Please keep up the good work. MAY ALL YOUR FILLS BE COMPLETE. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29434 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/23/2003 2:10:33 PM Thanks for the encouragement. In all the several years I have been posting on stock and even the hotly debated political boards boards ( well over 5,000 posts ) I have only put 3 people on ignore. There comes a point though that it becomes evident that an individual has no intention of debating in good faith and thats when I pull the plug cause it's of no use and a waste of my time. Today the SOX is down ( -2.6% ) and NVDA is up +0.9%. NVDA has been outperforming the market the past 3 days. The 50 DMA isn't out of reach yet but NVDA could use some help from a good day in the market to get there. Looks like NASDAQ wants to rise to test ther gap @ 1,891 as resistance. JMHO |
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