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| JoeGrossinger 165 posts msg #29457 - Ignore JoeGrossinger |
10/24/2003 12:42:16 PM I posted the following 5 days ago and its worth reading again. 10/19/2003 1:54:22 PM Of course stocks can always do the surprising move, but NVDA is a dog from my point of view. There is nothing there to recommend it. One of the worst things a trader can do is anticipate a reversal. It's like predicting the end of the world. This stock only knows one direction. DOWN. It could and probably will do a short bounce from these levels because its oversold, but that is about it. OVERSOLD does not indicate more buyers than sellers, oversold, where the stock just keeps diving has nothing to recommend it. This stock tried to break out of a double bottom and failed, heading lower. So the best you can hope for is a triple bottom formation in about a month or so. The chart starts at the upper left and without break or letup goes to the bottom right. I don't need any indicators to tell me this stock only knows one direction. DOWN. It's sorry performance during a very bullish phase of the market is another indicator. It's not testing anything but new lows and most likely will revisit the $15.70 area again. From there it might struggle up to the $17.50 for another test. That is only a 11% climb and could take another month to complete. It's a snorer. The Bollinger Bands have not come together, which means either the stock will continue to go down or it will take some time to base before making a substantial move. It just recently fell below the 200 day average, the 50 day average is falling like a rock and the 20 day likes to stay below the 50 day. This is a bearish chart. The weekly chart shows a real nice stair step to hell. ============================================================================ There is more blood than money in trying to catch falling knives. NVDA has not gone through the bottoming process and should be avoided. I would not be surprised to see it test the 15.70 - 16.00 area before heading up. |
| TheRumpledOne 6,529 posts msg #29460 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/24/2003 1:57:00 PM EWZuber: Did you hear something? Did someone else post something? Guess we're ignoring it..lol Did you see what EXTR did today? Over $1 gain so far... Not bad on a $7 stock this morning in premarket. Not to mention on a red day (when some are in bed). Hmmmmm guess RSI(2) is just something a "one trick pony" uses to make money...LOL!! Right now, the Nasdaq is bottoming on the lower lin reg line and the DOW is heading towards the lower lin reg line. Get ready to load the boat! MAY ALL YOUR FILLS BE COMPLETE. |
| TheRumpledOne 6,529 posts msg #29461 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/24/2003 1:59:01 PM NVDA as I see it... heading south on rsi(2) but at the bounce point of the last two times. EWZuber, your slow stoch (5,3) tells me to wait for an entry. Also volume is down a bit. And it is in the upper half of the bollinger band range. Chart says WAIT. |
| TheRumpledOne 6,529 posts msg #29462 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/24/2003 2:03:17 PM NVDA continued... It peaked on the 5 day intraday chart on Tuesday... and looks like it is doing a Fib retrace... go for nickel and dime scalps all day long for those inclined. $17.00 area not for the faint at heart! |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29464 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/24/2003 5:18:38 PM No didn't hear anything. I think the bounce up off of trendline support @ $16.86 was a good entry point. There was another good entry for a very short term play at $16.94 today @ 4:27 when the stock broke a short term resistance trendline. A little more risky holding a short term position overnight though. As long as the same criteria is used to exit these positions ( exiting on a break of trendline support ) so far they would have all been money makers. I like the $16.86 entry because that is dead on support and if it breaks that level then for me I know its time to exit and with 1% loss or so is not a problem. Intraday opportunities have been good. I have found NVDA an easy read for intraday charts and a good one for day trading if one takes only well timed entries and exits. I suspect that soon one of these plays will not result in a break of a short term supporting trendline and the longer term trade will establish itself. One month trendline support is right below the stock now and also ( I think this could be very important ) NVDA bounced up off of a resistance trendline started from the high of 9/9 today at almost exactly the same time it bounced up off of the 1 month supporting trendline! For a those that are not such active traders a break above the trendline formed from the high at 2:30 @ $17.88 on 10/21 across the high at 2:30 @ $17.50 on 10/23 takes us to about $17.15( &n falling ) on Mondays Hourly chart and also on the Daily chart. It is this line that I suspect will confirm a move substantial enough for an end of day trader to take a position. JMHO I am not advocating that anyone do this. These writings are strictly for educational purposes and discussion. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29465 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/24/2003 5:29:09 PM To clarify; One month trendline support is right below the stock ( @ $16.86 & rising ) and also ( I think this could be very important ) NVDA bounced up off of a resistance trendline that started from the high of 9/9 across the high of 9/19 ( to the present ) at almost exactly the same time it bounced up off of the 1 month supporting trendline! This is one feature I like about Bigcharts. If you draw a very accurate trendline on the daily charts and then switch to the ( say ) 10 day hourly chart, the trendlines remain intact and give you a magnified view of the situation. |
| TheRumpledOne 6,529 posts msg #29470 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/24/2003 9:56:53 PM EWZuber: You ever use www.stockconsultant.com? There's a lot of info packed in their charts. What's looks promissing for NVDA to me is on the 3 mon/d www.prophet.net chart the 13 and 26 emas are flattening out and NVDA closed above both the 13 and 26 emas. On the year/w chart, rsi(2) is heading north and once again the emas are flattening out. With the Nasdaq sitting on the lower LR line on the 3 mon/d, I would prepare for a bounce, IMHO. We have had 2 RED weeks in a row on the Nasdaq and we haven't had more than 2 in a row since January 03 and the DOW hasn't had 2 in a row since February. MAY ALL YOUR FILLS BE COMPLETE. |
| JoeGrossinger 165 posts msg #29473 - Ignore JoeGrossinger |
10/25/2003 2:20:23 AM The NASDAQ chart will probably go to 1820, or to the bottom of the Bollinger Band. It swings from one band to the other fairly frequently. If it holds there and goes up, there should be no problems. If the market goes below 1800 then we could be in for a rough time. When the market is red - stay in bed Sound advice unless you like bucking the odds and swimming upstream. The DOW Industrials will probably end up at 9350-9400. Most of the time you don't need any software or indicators to see where the market or a stock is going. Unless there is an oversold indication that is very strong, stay away from charts that point downward. Simple as that. If you like buying the oversold stocks that is OK too but just keep in mind that the only absolute bottom for any stock is a price of 0.00 Go with your eyeballs and guts and use the indicator for confirmation. As in the case with LOOK, NVDA, UTSI and many others, avoid them because the price just keeps going down. Why bother with these when there are so many others that are going up or are grossly oversold or that make a nice sine wave? Look at FLEX or CVC or CSCO for some very interesting plays on stocks that MOVE and make money. |
| TheRumpledOne 6,529 posts msg #29479 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/25/2003 11:34:14 AM EWZuber: Did you hear something? Let me check... I thought I heard a PEEP... I'll just ignore it, couldn't have been anything important. By the way, EWZuber, did you make a nice profit this week? I know the market is paying for a few goodies for the Miata. MAY ALL YOUR FILLS BE COMPLETE. |
| JoeGrossinger 165 posts msg #29492 - Ignore JoeGrossinger |
10/26/2003 10:08:38 AM I think it would be extremely difficult to buy anything after taking a 60% haircut. Dealing in dogs like LOOK, SONS and NVDA is asking for a tough living. You guys are shorting I guess? |
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