guspenskiy13 976 posts msg #121583 - Ignore guspenskiy13 modified |
9/26/2014 1:24:51 PM
I will provide some info as soon as I get some time...have been wanting to do it forever..
Meanwhile, XIV @ 39.44 half-position - quick 2% already, should be a decent entry for a little ride. Might even get lucky and add
lower - who knows. It's rare when you buy an instrument and you actually want it to go a bit lower lol.
"Well from what i know, you buy a moderate position & you sell in increments on the way up & buy when it dips
below original purchase price? So if market shoots up, you at least have some skin in the game."
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If we talk about a chunk of portfolio that you want to devote to XIV, you make a long-term portion that you will carry for some time.
You buy it on a nice dip and then you leave it. Because of the mean-reverting properties of XIV it's likely that it will show profit fast - but just leave it alone. Did you know that XIV de-leveraged by the factor of 5 provides same returns as SPY, but with ~30% SD less? You can just think of it as an investment in SPY, only better.
The next portion of your XIV portfolio should be cut into an X amount of chunks that you buy on the dips. By dips I mean not intra-day, but rather 61.8% move retracements and SPY at 1 SD LRC or near it. X chunks, because you are not likely to call bottoms perfectly. Look at XIV behaviour since start of July to mid August - I doubt anyone nailed the bottom. But if you have 3-4 chunks that you invested at the different price, they would all show you nice profit .
That's the best part about this particular investment - you can say f*ck you to all the financial experts, traders and all their rules and actually AVERAGE DOWN. Why? Because XIV is not a "normal" stock or instrument - it is RANGE-BOUND and MEAN-REVERTING.
Then I would leave a small portion of the portfolio for day-to-day quick 1-5 days or even intra-day swinging. That's because mean-reversion "works" on different time-frames and with give volatility, 1 to 3% intra-day are very possible. And if you miss it - it's OK, because maybe the reversion will take a week instead of 1-2 days that you expected.
"PATIENTS IS THE TOUGHEST PART OF THIS GAME."
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Not only the case of XIV but the case with speculation in general. Especially with XIV I guess. To be honest, one thing that I have found about myself recently - best trading decisions are taken when I go and don't plan on doing anything. I might be not even interested and concentrated too much on trading - just checking every 10-15 minutes the chart. This way I get interested only when there is an actually decent opportunity present.
"The way to win at this game is to think of taking a small position, & then go even smaller than that in any & many different
strategies & stock opportunities that arise!! "
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Buying dips is even easier here, because the instrument we trade is based on VIX - which is range-bound. Imagine if you can physically trade VIX and you just accumulate at 12-13 - you can wait forever to sell it over 20.
We have a big position that gets its profits from long-term contango daily roll yield with VRP (volatility risk premium).
We have mid-term positions (3-6) that we add on decent dips on the daily chart and we get rid of some of them, when they show a substantial profit.
We have a short term position or positions, that we swing for intra-day or couple days. Hell, if XIV is in range - just buy it on a decent "red" day and you will MOST likely get 1-2% in 1-2 days on that.
As said two times before, I will make a post that will be more specific and structurized....later.
P.S.
Never use technicals on XIV - it's a derivative in the fifth power (SPX, SPX options, IV of SPX options, VIX calculations, VIX futures with VRP (volatility risk premium), 1-2 month daily roll yield ETN inversed based on VIX futures (that includes premium of SPX options and that include premium themselves).
P.P.S.
Since 2004 XIV buy-and-hold had ~34% CAGR and Sharpe in 0.7s....with GFC that won't ever happen again.... just something to consider....especially to those, who say it's a terrible long-term investment.
I'll be back.
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shillllihs 6,086 posts msg #121584 - Ignore shillllihs |
9/26/2014 4:03:09 PM
KWK 1700sh. .63
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four 5,087 posts msg #121585 - Ignore four |
9/26/2014 4:09:07 PM
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Quicksilver-Resources-to-Caa3--PR_309367?WT.mc_id=AM~WWFob29fRmluYW5jZTQyX1NCX1JhdGluZyBOZXdzX0FsbF9Fbmc%3d~20140926_PR_309367
Moody Downgrade - KWK - Quicksilver Resources
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shillllihs 6,086 posts msg #121588 - Ignore shillllihs |
9/26/2014 5:40:44 PM
They want a piece of it cheap...
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guspenskiy13 976 posts msg #121611 - Ignore guspenskiy13 modified |
9/29/2014 10:33:24 AM
If SPY finishes green today, we can state that there is good demand @ 196-196.5 and expect some gains going into the week.
Although, looking couple months ahead I can't see anything except for trading in range....each good dip in XIV should be bought and sold couple days later..
p.s.
XIV added @38.87; volatility has a ton of premium priced in itself
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shillllihs 6,086 posts msg #121613 - Ignore shillllihs |
9/29/2014 1:34:03 PM
i think it's over...
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guspenskiy13 976 posts msg #121614 - Ignore guspenskiy13 |
9/29/2014 2:24:51 PM
what's over?
spy should bounce
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shillllihs 6,086 posts msg #121615 - Ignore shillllihs |
9/29/2014 2:45:53 PM
I see 1-2 weeks of stagnation then a month of great recovery.
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guspenskiy13 976 posts msg #121620 - Ignore guspenskiy13 modified |
9/30/2014 10:41:31 AM
XIV positions showing loss so far as of this morning.
p.s.
sometimes i question myself why don't i just short TVIX...with ~ -90% CAGR annually...lol
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shillllihs 6,086 posts msg #121621 - Ignore shillllihs |
9/30/2014 11:40:38 AM
Because the spike would destroy you.
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